Ukraine SitRep: Syrski's Interview - Mobilizing - De-Energization
March 29, 2024
General Syrski, the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian army has given an interview to a Ukrainian media platform.
His description of the war seems overly optimistic:
The situation at the front is really difficult. However, it cannot be any different at the front. Undoubtedly, every day requires maximum effort from our soldiers and officers. But we not only are on the defensive, but also move forward in different directions every day. Recently, the number of positions we have returned exceeds the number of lost positions. The enemy did not manage to advance significantly in strategic areas, and his territorial gains, if any, are of tactical importance. We are monitoring this situation.
The various people who map the front lines seem to disagree with him.
More Syrski:
The experience of the past months and weeks shows that the enemy has significantly increased aircraft activity, using KABs - guided air bombs that destroy our positions. In addition, the enemy resorts to dense artillery and mortar fire. Several days ago, the enemy's advantage in terms of ammunition was about six to one.However, we learned to fight not by the amount of ammunition, but by the skill of using the weapons that we have. In addition, we make the most of the advantages of unmanned aerial vehicles, although the enemy is trying to catch up with us in this effective weapon.
With an artillery advantage of 6 to 1 it does not really matter how good the gunners are. The side with more shots will evidently win. Ukrainian drone supremacy is likewise a very dubious claim.
These numbers though are even worse:
It is clear that these are statistics, but it is important to know that in February-March of this year alone (as of March 26), the enemy lost more than 570 tanks, about 1,430 armored fighting vehicles, almost 1,680 artillery pieces and 64 air defense systems. At the same time, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to keep key heights and defense areas under control. Our goal is to prevent the loss of our territory, exhaust the enemy as much as possible, inflict the greatest losses on him, and form and prepare reserves for offensive operations.It is also very significant that the enemy's activity in the air was also reduced, of course, thanks to the skills of our air defense units. In just ten days in February, they shot down 13 enemy aircraft, including two strategically important A50 early warning and control aircraft.
Since February 1 2024 the Russian Defense Ministry has claimed the destruction of 202 Ukrainian tanks, 550 Ukrainian armored fighting vehicles and 686 Ukrainian artillery pieces. Syrski claims that the Russian losses are twice to three times that high? I have more than serious doubts that his numbers are right. A commander should not deceive his troops like this.
As for the aircraft only one A-50 has likely come down and two other planes seem to have been confirmed losses. In fact the numbers in February were widely laughed at and the Ukrainian air force has since stopped to issue such claims.
Syrski is asked about the hot potato in current Ukrainian politics:
Q: Earlier reports said that 500,000 more people had to be mobilized to maintain combat capability and ensure the rotation of units and formations of the Ukrainian Armed Forces at the front. How realistic is such a figure now?A: Following the revision of our internal resources and clarification of the combat composition of the Armed Forces, this figure was significantly reduced. We expect that we will have enough people capable of defending their motherland. I am talking not only about the mobilized, but also about volunteer fighters.
No matter how far the number of needed men will get reduced the chance to persuade enough Ukrainians that their service and lives are needed to save the country are near to zero.
Ivan Katchanovski @I_Katchanovski - 15:43 UTC · Mar 28, 2024This suggests that over 1,000,000 men in Ukraine are on wanted lists of police for draft dodging even before new drastic mobilization law comes into force: "In the Poltava region, about 30,000 people did not show up at the TCC and SP departments. The TCC appealed to the police with an appeal to deliver these people to the military commissariat." And about 40,000 men are on wanted list for the same in Ivano-Frankivsk Region.
The social contract in Ukraine provides that those in power are allowed to loot as long as they do not bother those below them. That is not a society that allows to draft people for aims which are only supported by a minority of the population. Out of six draft notices send out only one gets responded to. The new conscription law that is slowly creeping through parliament procedures will not be able to change that.
Noticeable is that The Economist is blaming Zelenski for this:
But in Ukraine attempts to raise fresh recruits are still stuck in the coils of the democratic process; more than 1,000 amendments have reportedly been tabled to a bill in Parliament that would give the government more scope to raise the army it needs. Short of cash and fearing unpopularity, President Volodymyr Zelensky has not tried hard enough to get his way.
There were in fact over 6,000 amendments to the bill of which some 4,300 have gone through the committee with more to come. It will still take months until that law is enacted. It is likely to have little effect.
The Ukrainian government had announced that in future the country itself would produce the weapons it needs for the war. The Russian response is a new campaign to de-energize those Ukrainian regions with the most industrial facilities:
Ukraine said on Friday it had imposed emergency blackouts on three regions after Russia fired dozens of missiles and drones at its power stations overnight.Moscow has stepped up its aerial bombardment of Ukraine in recent weeks, targeting energy infrastructure in response to deadly Ukrainian assaults on Russia's border regions.
National grid operator Ukrenergo said its dispatch centre was "forced to apply emergency blackout schedules in the regions of Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kirovograd until the evening".
Restrictions were already in place in the major cities of Kharkiv and Kryvyi Rih following a Russian strike last week.
There are only a few air defense systems left in Ukraine. They are needed to cover the front, to protect energy facilities and political centers. Currently they can not do either. Even if the U.S. would resume its support for Ukraine there would not be enough systems available to keep Ukraine covered.
There are rumors of an upcoming big Russian offensive. I don't buy those yet. There is still enough of the Ukrainian army left to continue the slow grinding process that has already eliminated large parts of it.
Posted by b on March 29, 2024 at 15:38 UTC | Permalink